The Perfect Storm that Allowed an Islamist Victory in Syria

Daniel Pipes, author, historian, and president of the Middle East Forum, analyzes the series of events that created a perfect storm for rebel factions in Syria to overthrow the Assad regime.

Transcript:

NTD: What were the series of events that created the so-called “perfect storm” for rebel factions in Syria to overthrow the Assad regime? Does the regime’s collapse signal the end of the axis of resistance against Israel? Joining me now to discuss this is Daniel Pipes, author, historian, and president of the Middle East Forum. Daniel, thank you for joining us.

Daniel Pipes: My pleasure.

NTD: Daniel, what are some of the elements that have contributed to this seemingly perfect storm for rebel factions to succeed in challenging Bashar al-Assad’s long-time rule?

Pipes: Three key factors came together. First, Russia has been focused on Ukraine. Second, Iran has been weakened by its ties to Russia and its ongoing conflict with Israel. Third, Israel’s devastating strikes on Hezbollah, one of Assad’s main supporters on the ground, have further destabilized the regime.

With Assad’s main backers either distracted or weakened, Turkish-backed HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) saw this as the perfect moment to act. They had been waiting for the right opportunity, and they struck decisively. In a matter of about 10 days, they moved from controlling a small corner of Syria to taking over much of the country—though not all of it.

NTD: Iran has faced several setbacks in recent years, from the U.S. killing of General Soleimani in 2020 to Israel’s targeting of senior Iranian and Hezbollah leaders. Now, with developments in Syria, are we witnessing the end of the so-called axis of resistance in the Middle East?

Pipes: The Iranian axis of resistance has certainly taken significant blows and might not survive. However, Turkey, once a close ally of the West, is now asserting itself as a powerful rogue state. I am particularly concerned about Turkey, as it is a stronger and more strategically savvy state than Iran when it comes to Islamist ideology.

Turkey, through HTS, now has an opportunity to establish an extremist government in Syria—a feat Turkish President Erdoğan has been unable to fully achieve in Turkey due to its century-old institutions. In Syria, where anarchy reigns, Turkey has a freer hand. Ironically, we might one day look back nostalgically at the days of Bashar al-Assad compared to what could come next.

HTS claims it has reformed and distanced itself from its extremist past and ties to Al-Qaeda, but I’m skeptical. I see this as a charm offensive, and I fear we’re in for significant trouble ahead. While it’s positive to see Iran pushed back, Turkey’s advance is deeply concerning.

NTD: Israel has been striking and dismantling strategic military assets in Syria recently. The Israeli Defense Minister announced that Syria’s navy and air force have been destroyed. How significant is this, and why is Israel acting now?

Pipes: The destruction of Syria’s navy and air force is remarkable. It highlights the diminished military power of what was once a significant Middle Eastern state. However, it also reflects a broader trend: the Arab states that were once Israel’s primary adversaries—Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon—are no longer key threats.

Today, Israel’s main challenges come from Iran, Turkey, global Islamists, and the international left—not the Arab states. Israel is taking this opportunity to eliminate Syria’s offensive capabilities, but once the dust settles and a new Syrian government emerges, this freehand may disappear. If HTS consolidates power under Turkish influence, we could face a stronger, more radical force in the region.

NTD: Syria was one of the few Arab states to back Iran during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Over the years, Iran has supported Syria financially and militarily. Why is Iran distancing itself from Assad now, and what does this mean for their decades-long alliance?

Pipes: I don’t think Iran has much of a choice. With Assad now in exile in Russia, Iran needs to recalibrate and find new allies among Syria’s emerging factions. The same goes for Russia. Both nations are starting from a very weak position after this defeat.

This loss is a major blow for Iran. Internally, there may be factions within its leadership arguing for retrenchment—focusing on domestic issues rather than international ambitions. Iran faces significant economic challenges, ethnic tensions, and growing disillusionment with its ideological agenda. Some leaders might push to pull back from international conflicts, including efforts to destroy Israel or confront the United States.

Given the health issues reportedly facing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran might be entering a period of introspection and retrenchment. This defeat could mark a turning point for the regime.

NTD: Daniel Pipes, president of the Middle East Forum, thank you for sharing your insights.

Pipes: Thank you.