Operation Timber Sycamore: A U.S. Intelligence Failure and the Empowerment of the Iran–Turkey Axis
Sherzad MamSani, EastMedNews Contributor
Operation Timber Sycamore represents a stark example of the failure of Western covert policy in the Middle East. Initiated by the CIA in 2012 to support the so-called “moderate Syrian opposition,” the operation ultimately produced adverse outcomes, most notably the empowerment of the Iran–Turkey axis and the creation of fertile ground for transnational terrorism. This paper critiques the Obama administration’s strategic miscalculations, examines the regional impact of the program, and explores its consequences for state sovereignty and future U.S. foreign policy in the region.
1. Introduction
Between 2012 and 2017, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) launched a covert operation codenamed “Timber Sycamore”, designed to shift the balance of power in the Syrian civil war. Backed by regional allies—primarily Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar—the operation sought to bolster armed Syrian opposition forces against the Assad regime. However, the operation quickly spiraled into a poorly regulated campaign, funneling weapons and funds into the hands of extremist factions, many with ties to al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups.
2. Operation Goals and Strategic Oversight
The Obama administration framed Timber Sycamore as a “non-direct intervention” strategy to avoid U.S. military entanglement. Weapons were transferred through Jordan and Turkey, while Gulf states financed much of the operation.
Subsequent intelligence reports revealed that large quantities of U.S.-supplied arms ended up in the hands of jihadist organizations such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, thus undermining the very goal of creating a “moderate” opposition (Ignatius, 2017).
3. Strategic Errors: Obama’s Empowerment of Adversaries
3.1 The Iran Deal and the Expansion of Tehran’s Influence
While Washington armed rebels in Syria, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) led to the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets. These funds were partially used to bolster Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and forces deployed in Syria (Tabatabai, 2017).
U.S. officials later admitted that segments of this financial relief were channeled into IRGC-backed operations across the region.
3.2 Turning a Blind Eye to Turkey’s Dual Role
Turkey, ostensibly a NATO ally, played a double game. It allowed its borders to serve as passageways for thousands of foreign fighters and facilitated arms deliveries to extremist factions aligned with its geopolitical goals.
It also used the chaos to justify military incursions into northern Syria, aiming to crush the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—the most effective local partner of the U.S. in fighting ISIS (Stein, 2016).
Multiple reports confirm that a significant portion of ISIS fighters entered Syria via Turkish territory (Lister, 2015).
4. Consequences: A Battlefield for Militias and Proxies
The outcomes of Timber Sycamore were overwhelmingly negative:
• The moderate opposition lost credibility due to alliances with radical groups.
• Bashar al-Assad’s regime gained legitimacy, portraying itself as a bulwark against terrorism.
• Iranian-backed militias expanded across Syria, operating with impunity.
• A geography of terrorism emerged in northern Syria, enabled by loose coordination among U.S. allies.
• Democratic Kurdish forces were weakened, despite their pivotal role in defeating ISIS.
5. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
Operation Timber Sycamore stands as a case study in the unintended consequences of covert intervention. The Obama administration’s reluctance to engage directly, combined with an over-reliance on unaccountable regional actors, destabilized Syria further and empowered geopolitical rivals.
For future operations, U.S. policy must:
• Impose strict conditions on regional partners.
• Place local civil society at the center of any reconstruction or stabilization effort.
• Recognize and protect non-Arab minorities, especially the Kurds, who continue to be instrumental in counter-terrorism efforts.
The most prominent statements and statements about the role of the American Democratic Party (and sometimes other circles in the US administration) in supporting Al-Qaeda, the Al-Nusra Front, and ISIS in the Middle East through Iran and Turkey:
US Statements from Within Official Institutions
1. John Kerry (former US Secretary of State)
In a leaked recording, he admitted that ISIS was “allowed to expand in Syria” as a means of political pressure on Damascus.
2. Tulsi Gabbard (Democratic Congresswoman and former presidential candidate)
Stated in 2019 that “the US administration armed and funded al-Qaeda in Syria,” adding that “the government was directly supporting al-Qaeda in the Syrian war.”
3. Senator Richard Black (former Democrat)
Revealed direct US support for groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS in Syria, describing them as “tools in the Syrian war” that carry out most of America’s missions.
Statements from the Syrian regime and regional observers
4. Bashar al-Assad (President of Syria)
He stated that Turkey is currently supporting Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS, emphasizing its close ties with the West, and that supporting the two organizations is part of a Western strategy to keep weapons a card in the confrontation.
5. Western reports and regional agendas (Turkey and Iran)
• The Iranian Mehr News Agency and its Arabic page accused Turkey of establishing a “logistics base” and supporting al-Qaeda inside Syria.
• The Turk Press Agency (close to the Turkish perspective) quoted American sources as saying that the United States has funded and armed the Kurdish Democratic Forces (PYD/YPG), considering them a “pretext for the continuation of American policies” in eastern Syria.
International Statements on Iran
6. The US-Iran Alliance
Regional media outlets, such as “Turk Press,” reported that the Obama administration coordinated with Iran to support Shiite proxy militias against ISIS, as part of an alliance against Sunni jihadist organizations.
Opinions and Interventions from the Community
Some participants on platforms such as Reddit expressed conflicting views, including the accusation that ISIS was “created” or exploited by the US as part of its geopolitical interests, despite doubts about the existence of documented evidence. Some also conveyed accusations of coordination with Turkey on behalf of organizations such as the Levant Liberation Front, supported by accounts that the organization treats wounded in Israel or is featured in its media.
References
• Ignatius, D. (2017). “Trump ends covert CIA program to arm anti-Assad rebels in Syria, a move sought by Moscow.” The Washington Post.
• Tabatabai, A. (2017). Iran’s Regional Strategy and Post-JCPOA Foreign Policy. RAND Corporation.
• Lister, C. (2015). The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency. Oxford University Press.
• Stein, A. (2016). “Turkey’s Double Game in Syria.” Foreign Affairs.
• Weiss, M., & Hassan, H. (2015). ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror. Regan Arts.
• Byman, D. (2016). Understanding the Islamic State. Brookings Institution.